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Timing the Market, Is it Possible? - January 08, 2020

Being that unique investor who has the power to constantly time the market and continually make a profit is the dream for most traders and investors.

In fact, even among long-term investors who don't attempt to time the markets, being able to call the top of the market is a skill that many think they possess. This misguided confidence is often driving investors to sit on the sidelines and wait it out for better market opportunities.

Lost chances by those who attempt to time the market is a common mistake among those who trade their own accounts. How many traders have lost investing opportunities by choosing to wait for the Auto-Tires-Trucks stocks to correct or reach attractive entry levels? Only for them to continue to move higher and achieve new all-time highs: Gentherm Inc (THRM), Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd. Unsponsored ADR (BCAUY), Aisin Seiki Co. Ltd. Unsponsored ADR (ASEKY), Auto Trader Group (ATDRY), American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL)

Investment emotional triggers (fear and greed) can lead to costly mental mistakes by investors who typically fall into the trap of being a market follower instead of a market leader.

Successful market timing requires three key ingredients: 1) A reliable signal to tell you when to get in and out of stocks (or bonds, gold or other types of investments). 2) The ability to interpret the signal correctly. 3) The discipline to act on it.

Market timing is commonly perceived as the ability to guess the exact market top or bottom and make moves accordingly. However, there is a less common, rather straightforward market timing strategy that has been utilized effectively by insightful financial specialists like Warren Buffet for a considerable length of time.

Rule 1: Attempting to time tops and bottoms is lose-lose situation.

Abandoning the goal to time the tops and bottoms precisely gives you the flexibility to profit, thereby increasing your chances to lock in built-up profits even if your calls aren't exactly right.

Rule 2: Make an effort not to sell in the midst of little crashes. Muster the courage to trust your gut and buy best in class stocks at a discount.

Warren Buffett has made his fortune based off this simple rule. He benefits by focusing on the long - term and buying high quality stocks at a discount during large market corrections to profit down the road.

There is a big difference between a stock market crash and small correction. If you own shares of a company that is well - established and has strong fundamentals, they are probably going to rebound to their pre - crash prices eventually, thereby rendering holding on a wise decision. Warren Buffett takes this thought a notch higher and frequently goes on a buying binge when markets turn, purchasing additional shares of his favorite stocks at a major markdown and tuning in to his own recommendation of being greedy when others are scared, and being scared when others are greedy.

When It Comes to Trading Your Retirement, A Risk Adjusted Trading Strategy Should be Followed

It's only human that many succumb to greed and try and game the system by timing the market. But, think about this: Nobel Laureate William Sharpe found in 1975 that a market timer would need to be precise 74% of the time to beat a passive portfolio. Indeed, even a slight outperformance most likely wouldn't justify the efforts - and given that even the specialists for the most part come up short at it, market timing shouldn't be your exclusive methodology for investing, particularly when it comes to building your retirement nest egg.

Actively trading for alpha, outsized, short - term gains through market timing and other high - risk trading strategies is fine with a small portion of your investable assets, but for your longer - term retirement assets, a "risk -adjusted focused" investment solution generally makes more sense.

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Gentherm Inc (THRM): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Auto Trader Group (ATDRY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Aisin Seiki Co. Ltd. Unsponsored ADR (ASEKY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd. Unsponsored ADR (BCAUY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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