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Hanover Insurance (THG) Projects Q3 Cat Loss of $119M-$130M

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. THG estimates third-quarter catastrophe loss of $150-$165 million pre-tax or $119-$130 million after taxes. The loss is expected to primarily stem from Hurricane Ida.

Losses from Hurricane Ida are estimated to be $75 million, before taxes, stemming from losses in the Northeast and, to a lesser extent, from the Gulf and Mid-Atlantic states.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.82 per share, which indicates a decline of 26% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. We expect estimates to move south once analysts start incorporating loss estimates into their numbers.

AIR Worldwide, a modeling firm, projects total insured losses from Hurricane Ida in the range of $20-$30 billion as reported in Insurance Journal. The Allstate Corporation ALL estimates net losses of $631 million pretax ($498 million after-tax) from Hurricane Ida.

Being a property and casualty insurer, Hanover Insurance is exposed to claims stemming from catastrophes, which significantly affects operations and financial condition. In the first half of 2021, total catastrophe loss increased 13% year over year to $210.1 million, primarily due to freeze events in Texas and surrounding states and wind, rain, and hail events in the Midwest in June. Combined ratio deteriorated 90 basis points (bps) year over year to 96.6.

It lowered exposure in vulnerable regions of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and West Coast, while reducing micro concentrations and enhancing reinsurance protections. These steps should allow it to improve underwriting profitability.

The Commercial Lines and Personal Lines segments are primarily protected by a property catastrophe occurrence program, a property per risk excess of loss treaty.

This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) insurer has enhanced analytics and risk management initiatives to manage climate change and catastrophe exposure. It uses facultative, property per-risk, and catastrophe treaty reinsurance to mitigate the possible impact from extreme events.

Shares of The Hanover Insurance have rallied 46.2% year over year compared with the industry’s increase of 22.7%. Prudent management of business mix, focus on the growth of the most profitable product lines, stable retention, better pricing, and strong market presence should help shares bounce back.

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Other Stocks to Consider

Some other top-ranked stocks in the same space include Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF and Everest Re Group RE, both sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Cincinnati Financial delivered an earnings surprise of 80.81% in the last reported quarter.

Everest Re Group delivered an earnings surprise of 62.56% in the last reported quarter.


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