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Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 6. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 0.9%.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of $2.06 per share, indicating a deterioration of 108.1% from a loss of 99 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $10.1 million, suggesting a decline of 99.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.


Factors at Play

Norwegian Cruise’s first-quarter performance is likely to have been affected by pandemic-induced lockdowns and travel restrictions along with closure of key ports. Notably, cancellations of cruises due to the crisis along with change in booking patterns are likely to get reflected in first-quarter top line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for passenger ticket revenues and onboard and other revenues is currently pegged at $5.5 million and $1.3 million, respectively, indicating a decline of 99.3% and 99.7% from the prior-year quarter’s levels.

Meanwhile, quarterly earnings are likely to have been negatively impacted by cash burn. The company estimates cash burn at approximately $190 million per month for the first quarter of 2021. This includes ongoing ship operating expenses, administrative operating expenses, interest expenses, taxes and expected non-newbuild capital expenditures.

However, focus on start-up activities is likely to have driven the company in the to-be-reported quarter. This along with easing of travel restrictions and the pace of vaccine distribution of vaccines are likely to have influenced the pace of recovery in the first quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Norwegian Cruise this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Norwegian Cruise has an Earnings ESP +5.26%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary space that investors may consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Fox Corporation FOXA has a Zacks Rank #1 and an Earnings ESP of +13.40%.

Choice Hotels International, Inc. CHH has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +17.47%.

PlayAGS, Inc. AGS has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +25.75%.

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