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What's in the Offing for Navient (NAVI) This Earnings Season?

Navient Corporation NAVI is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 26, after market close. The company’s earnings as well as revenues are expected to display year-over-year declines.

This Wilmington, DE-based lender’s second-quarter 2021 earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, primarily backed by provision benefit and rise in non-interest income. However, private education loans declined. A fall in net interest income (NII) acted as a headwind.

The company has an impressive surprise history. Navient outpaced earnings estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, the average earnings surprise being 41.35%.

Navient Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Navient Corporation price-eps-surprise | Navient Corporation Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings is pegged at 83 cents, indicating a 16.2% year-over-year decrease. Also, there has been a lack of any solid catalyst that could instill optimism prior to the third-quarter earnings release. In fact, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share has remained unchanged over the past month. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $275.3 million for revenues suggests a 18.1% fall from the prior-year quarter.

During the third quarter, Navient and Maximus entered into an agreement, per which the latter will take over the loan servicing for the U.S. Department of Education-owned student loan accounts of the former, through a contract novation. Effective Oct 20, Maximus replaced Navient as a contractor to U.S. Department of Education. The loans will stay on the same student loan servicing technology platform, owned by Fiserv, and nearly 800 Navient employees, who had previously worked on the Department of Education loan servicing team, will transfer to Maximus.

Key Factors to Note

Modest Loan Growth: Per the Fed’s latest data, the consumer lending scenario was encouraging during the quarter, driven by a rise in consumer confidence as economic growth remains robust. Hence, Navient is likely to have witnessed an increase in its overall loan balances.

Decline in Net Interest Income (NII): Despite consumer loan growth, the company’s NII is expected to have witnessed a fall during the to-be-reported quarter due to low interest rates.

The consensus estimate for NII for the third quarter is pegged at $276 million, calling for a decline of 14.3% sequentially.

Lower Non-Interest Income: Weakness in fee income might have kept Navient’s top line under pressure during the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $49.9 million for servicing revenues indicates a marginal decline from the previous quarter. The consensus estimate for asset recovery revenues reflects a sequential fall of 7.8% to $131 million.

Elevated Expenses: Navient’s initiatives to become a technologically-advanced company and its aim to expand services outside the education industry might have resulted in elevated expenses.

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

Our quantitative model does not predict an earnings beat for Navient this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP, and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better, increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Navient is +0.90%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Capital One Financial Corporation COF is slated to report quarterly earnings on Oct 26. The company, holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) at present, has an Earnings ESP of +5.18%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Civista Bancshares, Inc. CIVB is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 27. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of +5.32%.

The Earnings ESP for First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. FIBK is +4.46%. This Zacks #3 Ranked company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Oct 26.

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