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Will NVR be Able to Report Higher Earnings & Revenues in Q1?

NVR, Inc.’s NVR first-quarter 2021 earnings and revenues are expected to have witnessed growth on a year-over-year basis, courtesy of solid demand for new homes.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%. On a year-over-year basis, earnings increased 19.4%.

It has a strong earnings surprise history, having surpassed analysts’ expectations in 14 of the trailing 16 quarters.

Trend in Estimate Revision

For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has increased 1.7% to $61.90 over the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates an increase of 37.7% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $2.06 billion, suggesting a 32.1% increase from the year-ago reported figure of $1.56 billion.

NVR, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

NVR, Inc. price-eps-surprise | NVR, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Note

NVR’s quarterly results are likely to be impressive, given higher demand for homes. The company’s first-quarter Homebuilding revenues (accounting for 97.7% of total revenues) are expected to have increased from the year-ago level, backed by robust demand for new homes on lower mortgage rates and acute shortage of previously owned houses on the market. Also, the rising trend of working from home owing to the coronavirus outbreak has been prompting many families to choose to live in lower-cost and low-density communities, thereby boosting demand.

The improved sales trends can be attributed to solid monthly housing sales data. Notably, new home sales were up 19.3% and 8.2% year over year for January and February 2021. Existing home sales were up 23.7% for January and 9.1% for February, on a year-over-year basis. There’s no denying that the U.S. housing data was weak for February as severe cold weather, rise in lumber prices and a lack of supply took a toll on sales pace and pushed average home prices higher nationwide. Nonetheless, builders have been witnessing higher demand amid the COVID 19 pandemic, with Americans seeking more space for offices and classrooms.

Also, for NVR, more demand for affordable housing from multiple demographic groups is likely to have given a boost to orders in the first quarter.

However, escalating land, labor and material costs have been a threat to NVR. This is likely to have exerted some pressure on the company’s first-quarter margins as well.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for NVR for the quarter to be reported. It doesn’t have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, NVR carries a Zacks Rank #3.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which according to our model have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their respective quarters to be reported.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM has an Earnings ESP of +10.77% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Masco Corporation MAS has an Earnings ESP of +6.76% and holds a Zacks Rank #3.

United Rentals, Inc. URI has an Earnings ESP of +6.27% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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Masco Corporation (MAS): Free Stock Analysis Report
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