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What's in Store for GrowGeneration's (GRWG) Q1 Earnings?

GrowGeneration Corp. GRWG is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 12, after the closing bell.

Q1 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total sales is pegged at $87.3 million, suggesting growth of 165% from the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for earnings per share currently stands at 7 cents. The company had incurred a loss of 6 cent per share in first-quarter 2020. Notably, earnings estimates have remained stable over the past 30 days.

Q4 Performance

GrowGeneration reported fourth-quarter 2020 adjusted earnings per share of 3 cents, which marked a turnaround from a loss of 1 cent per share in the prior-year quarter. The company generated revenues of $62 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 144%. It reported year-over-year improvement in both fourth-quarter earnings and revenues. While the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, the bottom line missed the mark.

The company beat earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters, missed twice and matched once. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 75%, on average.

Factors to Note

GrowGeneration’s online sales have been surging and the first quarter was no exception to this trend as customers prefer to stay home due to the pandemic. Last year, the company rebranded its e-commerce operation, HeavyGarden.com and GrowGen.Pro, as growgeneration.com, which is an omni-channel sales approach to facilitate e-commerce across all its locations. It is more customer-friendly and provides both options — delivery or pick-up from store. The company noted that visitors to its website are trending more than 150,000 per month.

Sales to commercial customers, including expert growers and cultivators have been rising given the company’s continued focus on increasing commercial revenues by adding new customer accounts. GrowGeneration was marked as an essential supplier to the agricultural industry amid the pandemic, and all of its stores have been in operation. Walk-in transactions at stores have been averaging around 100,000 walk-ins per month. In addition to store openings, the company has been active on the acquisition front through first-quarter 2021 expanding its geographic presence and private label products.

All these factors are expected to have contributed to the company’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The company’s focus on margin expansion strategies that include furthering the deployment of more private-label products and driving more efficiency at the purchasing level may have favored the first-quarter earnings performance. However, higher store operating costs due to the opening of new stores and acquired stores, and higher salary expense on account of the increase in corporate staff to support expanding operations are likely to have weighed on the to-be-reported quarter’s performance.

What Our Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for GrowGeneration this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: GrowGeneration has an Earnings ESP of +3.70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Price Performance

Shares of the company have gained 105.7% in the past six months compared with the industry’s growth of 42.5%.

Other Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some other stocks, which you may consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Macy’s, Inc. M has an Earnings ESP of +28.59% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

MAG Silver Corporation MAG has an Earnings ESP of +100.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Home Depot Inc. HD has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +8.23%, at present.

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GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Macys, Inc. (M): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
MAG Silver Corporation (MAG): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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