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Here's Why You Should Add Radian Group (RDN) to Your Portfolio

Radian Group’s RDN improving mortgage insurance portfolio, declining claims, the well-performing homegenius segment, solid capital position, effective capital deployment, and favorable growth estimates make it worth adding to one’s portfolio.

RDN has a decent track record of beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing in one.

Zacks Rank & Price Performance

Radian Group currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Year to date, the stock has lost 3.8% against the industry’s increase of 11.8%.


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Return on Equity

Return on equity, a measure reflecting how efficiently a company utilizes shareholders' fund, was 19.3% in the trailing 12 months, better than the industry average of 9.3%.

Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 has moved 5.3% north in the past 30 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism.

Growth Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Radian Group’s 2022 earnings is pegged at $4.18, indicating a 32.7% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 5%.

Growth Drivers

Radian Group’s primary mortgage insurance in force should benefit from an increase in single premium policy insurance in force and a higher monthly premium policy. An improved mortgage insurance portfolio, the main catalyst of long-term earnings growth, creates a strong foundation for Radian’s earnings.

In an improved interest rate environment, refinance activity is likely to decline. This, in turn, is estimated to drive increases in portfolio persistency and boost insurance in force growth.

Radian Group expects insurance-in-force growth in 2022 to hover around 10%, banking on higher persistency and strong NIW volume. For 2022, RDN estimates total mortgage originations of $3 trillion, suggesting an 8% increase in purchase originations and a 58% decrease in refinance activity. This growth in the purchase market is a positive for the mortgage insurance industry. Radian Group expects the private mortgage insurance market to be $400 billion to $450 billion, which would represent the third-largest MI volume year in history.

RDN has been witnessing declining claims over the past few years. With the strong credit characteristics of the new loans insured, we expect RDN to witness lesser number of claims.

Radian’s homegenius business segment should continue to benefit from strong-performing real estate services, asset management, and valuation products and services despite minimal foreclosure and real estate-owned activities.

Radian Group’s solid liquidity aids in effective capital deployment. RDN boasts the highest dividend yield in the private MI industry. Its current dividend yield of 3.8% betters the industry average of 2.4%. RDN has $97.6 million remaining under its buyback authorization.

Attractive Valuation

RDN shares are trading at a discount than the industry average. Its price-to-book value of 0.85X is lower than the industry average of 2.09X. Before valuation expands, it is preferable to take a position in the stock. It has a Value Score of A. Back-tested results have shown that stocks with a Value Score of A or B combined with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 (Buy) offer better returns.

Other Stocks to Consider

Some other top-ranked stocks from the insurance industry are CNO Financial Group CNO, Horace Mann Educators Corporation HMN and Lemonade Inc. LMND, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CNO Financial delivered a four-quarter average surprise of 30.50%. Year to date, shares of CNO have lost 21.2%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNO Financial’s 2022 and 2023 earnings has moved 8.5% and 0.9% north, respectively, in the past 30 days.

Horace Mann delivered a four-quarter average surprise of 26.32%. Year to date, shares of HMN have lost 7.3%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMN’s 2022 earnings has moved 2.4% north in the past 60 days.

Lemonade delivered a four-quarter average surprise of 9.93%. Year to date, shares of LMND have lost 47.2%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lemonade’s 2022 and 2023 earnings has moved 14.5% and 13.7% north, respectively, in the past 60 days.


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