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Dynavax (DVAX) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Dynavax Technologies Corporation DVAX is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 4, after the market closes.

The company’s surprise history has been excellent so far with its earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, of the average being 91.67%. In the last reported quarter, Dynavax delivered an earnings surprise of 150.00%.

Shares of Dynavax have skyrocketed 331% so far this year against the industry’s decrease of 9.7%.

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Dynavax’s topline comprises sales of its hepatitis B vaccine Heplisav-B, its vaccine adjuvant CpG 1018 as well as other revenues. In the last reported quarter, total revenues increased significantly year over year, a trend that most likely continued in the third quarter as well.

We note that CpG 1018 is the adjuvant used in Dynavax’s hepatitis B vaccine Heplisav-B, which is approved in the United States and the European Union for the prevention of infection caused by all known subtypes of the hepatitis B virus in adults, aged 18 years and above.

In the last reported quarter, net product revenues from HEPLISAV-B increased year over year, a trend that most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Dynavax incurs manufacturing costs for the increased volumes of CpG 1018 and HEPLISAV-B sold to its customers. In the last reported quarter, cost of sales – product increased significantly year over year, a trend that most likely continued in the quarter to be reported.

Operating expenses are likely to have increased in the third quarter on higher cost to support vaccine and development activities as well as other activities.

Key Developments in Q3

The company collaborated with other companies for the use of CpG 1018 adjuvant in their respective COVID-19 vaccines. These collaborations are generating additional revenues for Dynavax.

Dynavax has reached a commercial supply agreement with Biological E for the use of CpG 1018 adjuvant in the commercial production of the latter's subunit COVID-19 vaccine candidate Corbevax. Additionally, Valneva SE VALN is developing inactivated COVID-19 vaccine candidateVLA2001, using Dynavax's CpG 1018 adjuvant.

Investors will be keen to get more updates on these collaborations during the upcoming earnings call.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Dynavax this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Dynavax has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently stand at 5 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Dynavax currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

Galera Therapeutics, Inc. GRTX has an Earnings ESP of +42.64% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACAD has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

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