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Catalyst (CPRX) Up 52.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Catalyst Pharmaceutical (CPRX). Shares have added about 52.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Catalyst due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Catalyst's Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Meet

Catalyst reported earnings of 7 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2019, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents. Meanwhile, the company reported a loss of 14 cents in the year-ago quarter.

The company’s revenues of $30.1 million were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. It did not record any revenue addition in the year-ago quarter. Revenues came entirely from sales of Firdapse.

Quarter in Detail

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, Firdapse was prescribed to 532 unique LEMS patients, reflecting a sequential increase of 7.7%.

Research and development (R&D) expenses of $6.3 million were down from $8.4 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses totaled $11.4 million, up from $6.9 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The increase is attributable to higher selling expenses including the costs of commercial system implementation of the company’s sales force, product launch expenses, market access and research costs.

As of Dec 31, 2019, Catalyst had cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities of $94.5 million compared with $81.6 million as of Sep 30, 2019.

2020 Guidance

The company expects Firdapse’s net revenues in the range of $135-$155 million for 2020.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Estimates review followed a downward path over the past two months.

VGM Scores

Currently, Catalyst has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Catalyst has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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