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What is in Store for Bristol-Myers (BMY) in Q3 Earnings?

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 27, before market open.

The company’s shares have lost 4.6% in the year so far compared with the industry's decline of 9.6%.

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Bristol-Myers has had a pretty decent track record, beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missing in one, the average surprise being 3.83%. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings by 2.66%.


Factors at Play

Bristol-Myers’ multiple myeloma (MM) drug, Revlimid (added with erstwhile Celgene’s acquisition), was the top revenue generator in the second quarter with sales of $3.2 billion, up 11% year over year,  driven by demand for triplet-based therapies and increasing treatment duration.  Demand has most likely been strong in the to-be-reported quarter as the global environment is improving. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $3.3 billion.

Blood thinner drug, Eliquis, was also one of the top revenue generators in the last reported quarter with sales of $2.8 billion, up 29% year over year. The solid performance of the second quarter and the first half has most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by market share increases. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $2.4 billion.

Sales of key immuno-oncology drug, Opdivo, revived in the second quarter following a slowdown and registered a 16% increase to $1.9 billion. Label expansions in recent months (in advanced renal cell carcinoma with Cabometyx and gastric cancer) have most likely boosted sales of Opdivo, which is approved for multiple cancer indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $1.9 billion.

Arthritis drug, Orencia, raked in sales of $814 million in the last reported quarter, up 9%, and the third quarter is likely to have witnessed similar levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $865 million.

Pomalyst posted a strong performance in the second quarter and generated sales of $854 million, up 15% year over year. The trend has most likely prevailed in the third quarter as well.

Melanoma drug, Yervoy, contributed $510 million to the top line in the previous quarter, up 38% year over year. Similar levels of contribution have most likely been witnessed in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $515 million.

Abraxane contributed $296 million to the top line in the previous quarter, down 4%, and similar levels of contribution have most likely been witnessed in the third quarter. 

Newly approved drugs like  Reblozyl for the treatment of patients with anemia failing an erythropoiesis-stimulating agent and requiring two or more red blood cell (RBC) units over eight weeks in adults with very low-to-intermediate-risk MDS-RS or with myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm with ring sideroblasts and thrombocytosis and Zeposia (ozanimod) for the treatment of adults with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS), including clinically isolated syndrome, relapsing-remitting disease, and active secondary progressive disease might have also resulted in incremental sales. 

Earlier in the year, Bristol Myers and bluebird BLUE obtained the FDA approval of their chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell immunotherapy, idecabtagene vicleucel, under the brand name, Abecma.  Incremental sales from new drugs approvals are likely to have led to an year-over-year increase in revenues in the quarter.

Operating expenses are likely to have increased in the third quarter due to costs associated with the broader portfolio.

Key Recent Developments

The FDA approved Opdivo for the adjuvant treatment of patients with high-risk urothelial carcinoma.  The European Commission also approved Opdivo for the adjuvant treatment of adult patients with esophageal or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer who have residual pathologic disease following prior neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT).

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bristol Myers this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Bristol Myers is -0.96% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.91 while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.89.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise


Bristol Myers Squibb Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Bristol Myers Squibb Company Quote

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN has an Earnings ESP of +8.78% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Gilead GILD has an Earnings ESP of +3.69% and a Zacks Rank #3.


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