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Country ETFs to Gain/Lose if Oil Touches $100

Oil analysts forecast a sustain rally as OPEC opposed calls to boost supply. OPEC and non-OPEC partners, a group collectively referred to as OPEC+, said they would adhere to their current agreement for a gradual increase in oil supply.

The group’s decision was widely expected, although some expected an urging from the United States and India to control soaring oil prices. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration had previously called on OPEC and its allies to increase oil output so that rising gasoline prices do not contribute to soaring inflation in America. Meanwhile, India — a huge consumer of oil — imports about 80% of its total energy requirements. No wonder, both countries will seek a lower oil price.

Analysts started forecasting that crude prices could rally as high as $100 a barrel. WTI crude oil stands at $78.42 a barrel at the time of writing.  Both WTI and brent crude oil contracts are up around 60% since the start of the year. Meanwhile, global supply was disrupted by hurricane outages and low investment.

The recovery in global oil demand from the coronavirus pandemic has been faster than expected. A volley of vaccines from various producers like Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Jhonson & Jhonson as well as an antiviral therapy from Gilead Sciences seem to be demand creators.

Against this backdrop, investors can play the below-mentioned ETFs.

ETFs to Gain

VanEck Vectors Russia ETF RSX

Oil — seemingly the main commodity of Russia — is acting as a tailwind for the nation. About half of Russia’s exports in terms of value come from oil and natural gas as the country has the third-largest oil reserve in the world and the biggest natural gas reserve. This makes it clear why Russia’s economy is highly dependent on the oil price movement. So, the jump in oil prices will likely lead investors toward the Russia investing.

Global X MSCI Norway ETF NORW

Norway is among the top 10 nations famous for oil exports and with its comparatively low population, oil forms the key part of the country’s GDP. Per U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Norway is the largest oil producer and exporter in Western Europe. The oil and gas sector makes up around 22% of Norwegian GDP and 67% of Norwegian exports.

iShares MSCI Canada ETF EWC

Canada is also among the world’s top 10 oil producers. The oil, gas and mining sector makes up about over a quarter of Canada’s economy. The country is one of the world's largest producers of dry natural gas.

ETFs to Lose

iShares India 50 ETF INDY

India is almost entirely dependent on imports to back its oil needs. An oil price rally could thus be a major deterrent to India investing.

iShares MSCI Turkey ETF TUR

Normally, Turkey’s 90% of the crude requirements are satisfied by imports. The country is also suffering from higher inflation.

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iShares India 50 ETF (INDY): ETF Research Reports
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR): ETF Research Reports
iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC): ETF Research Reports
VanEck Russia ETF (RSX): ETF Research Reports
Global X MSCI Norway ETF (NORW): ETF Research Reports
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