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Why Is Amerisafe (AMSF) Down 2.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amerisafe (AMSF). Shares have lost about 2.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amerisafe due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Amerisafe’s Earnings Beat Estimates in Q3, Improve Y/Y

Amerisafe’s third-quarter 2020 earnings of $1.16 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 68.1%. Moreover, the bottom line improved 6.4% year over year. The estimate beat can be attributed to lower expenses, partly offset by a decline in revenues.

Quarter in Detail

Amerisafe’s operating revenues decreased 9.9% year over year to $82 million and the top line also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.45%. The year-over-year decline was due to lower net premiums earned and soft net investment income.

Gross premiums written dropped 8.6% year over year to $72.6 million, primarily due to weak voluntary premiums. Underwriting profit of $13.9 million was down 27.9% year over year.

Net investment income declined 14.5% year over year to $7.1 million due to weak investment yields on fixed-income securities.

Total expenses of $54.3 million fell 16.2% from the year-ago quarter owing to lower insurance-related assessment and commission expense.
Net combined ratio of 72.8% improved 560 basis points (bps) year over year.

Financial Update

The company exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $88 million, up 101% from the level at 2019 end.

Total assets as of Sep 30, 2020 increased 3.6% to $1.55 billion from the level at 2019 end. Shareholder equity was $481.9 million, up 12% from 2019-end level.

As of Sep 30, 2020, book value per share came in at $23.94, which improved 7.4% from the level at 2019 end. Operating return on average adjusted equity of 17.9% expanded 180 bps year over year.


How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 7.89% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Amerisafe has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Amerisafe has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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