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What's in the Offing for Lemonade (LMND) in Q1 Earnings?

Lemonade, Inc. LMND is slated to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 11, after market close. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 7.69% in the last reported quarter.

Factors to Consider

Premiums are likely to have improved, given the company’s focus on shifting product mix toward higher value homeowner policies, introduction of Pet insurance and growth in the overall average policy value. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium per customer is pegged at $222.

Lemonade projects gross earned premium between $53.5 and $54.5 million for the first quarter of 2021, given likely improvement in in-force premium.

In-force premium in the to-be-reported quarter is likely to have been aided by increase in customer base as well as improvement in premium per customer. The company estimates in- force premium between $241 and $346 million as on Mar 31, 2021. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $343 million.

Lemonade projects revenues between $21.5 and $22.5 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $22.1 million.

Given its exposure to catastrophes, the company is likely to have borne the brunt of catastrophe losses, stemming from winter storms Uri and Voila, hitting Texas in February. The company thus estimates deterioration in gross loss ratio in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at 73.

Expenses are expected to have increased attributable to rise in other insurance expense, technology development, and general and administrative expense. Lemonade projects adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of $40 to $43 million for the to-be-reported quarter.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lemonade this time around. This is because the stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This is not the case as you can see below

Earnings ESP: Lemonade has an Earnings ESP of +14.75%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of 65 cents is narrower that the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 76 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Lemonade, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Lemonade, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Lemonade, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Lemonade currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Recent Releases

Stocks from the same space that beat their respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for first- quarter 2021 earnings are as follows:

Assurant AIZ beat the consensus estimate by 26%

CNO Financial CNO beat the consensus estimate by 12.2%

American International Group AIG beat the consensus estimate by 6.1%

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CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Lemonade, Inc. (LMND): Free Stock Analysis Report
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