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Here's How Kimco Realty (KIM) is Placed Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Kimco Realty Corporation KIM is slated to report third-quarter 2021 earnings on Nov 5, before the bell. The company’s quarterly results will likely display year-over-year growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Jericho, NY-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) posted a surprise of 9.68% in terms of FFO per share. Results reflected better-than-anticipated revenue numbers.

Kimco beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the other, the average beat being 4.79%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Kimco Realty Corporation price-eps-surprise | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Factors at Play

Per a report from CBRE Group CBRE, the total retail sales increased 15%, year over year, in the third quarter. The third quarter marked the fourth consecutive quarter of positive retail absorption (+36.7 million square feet) and each asset class depicted quarter-over-quarter gains. Also, the average asking rent improved for the third consecutive quarter, increasing 2.9%, year over year, to $21.31 per square feet in the reported quarter.

The overall retail availability rate shrunk to a 10-year low of 5.9% in the September-end quarter from the June-end quarter’s 6.2%. New construction deliveries were 6.4 million square feet in the third quarter, down 29%, year over year, on material cost increases and sourcing delays.

Kimco too is expected to benefit from its ownership of high-quality assets, concentrated in the top major metro markets, which offer several growth levers. Apart from these, having a grocery component has been the saving grace of retail REITs amid the global health crisis, and for Kimco, a significant chunk of its annual base rent comes from grocery-anchored centers.

With a well-located and largely grocery-anchored portfolio that offers essential goods and services, rent-collection figures are likely to have been healthy during the third quarter. Its curbside pick-up program is anticipated to have aided the company’s performance during the quarter under consideration.

Also, Kimco has achieved significant diversification with respect to geography and tenants, which is likely to have supported the company’s cash flows during the period in discussion. Apart from these, the company has been making moves to bolster its financial flexibility. In the third quarter too, Kimco is expected to have continued to maintain its decent balance-sheet position.

Amid these, the company’s top line is expected to show signs of improvement. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kimco’s quarterly revenues is currently pinned at $283.34 million, calling for 9.1% growth from the prior-year quarter.

Also, on Aug 4, Kimco announced the completion of the proposed merger with Weingarten Realty Investors, whereby the latter merged with and into Kimco Realty Corp., with Kimco continuing as the surviving public company. The move has enhanced Kimco’s portfolio with high-quality assets in the growing Sun Belt markets and boosted its future value creation scopes.

However, store closures and tenant bankruptcy remain concerns. The pandemic and the resultant higher e-commerce adoption might have affected its growth tempo to some extent during the quarter under consideration.

Prior to the third-quarter earnings release, there is lack of any solid catalyst for becoming optimistic about the company’s prospects. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share remained unchanged over the past month. However, the figure suggests an increase of 20%, year over year.

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Kimco this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP, and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of a FFO beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Kimco currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of -5.49%.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report surprises this quarter:

CubeSmart CUBE, scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on Nov 4, currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.86% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. PLYM, slated to release third-quarter numbers on Nov 5, has an Earnings ESP of +2.33% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT, set to report quarterly results on Nov 4, currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.49% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represent funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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