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NVR to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

NVR, Inc. NVR is likely to report third-quarter 2018 results on Oct 18. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 6.2%. In fact, earnings grew 39% in the last reported quarter on a year-over-year basis, backed by lower tax rate.

How are Estimates Faring?

Let’s take a look at the earnings estimate revision trend in order to get a clear picture of what analysts are thinking about the company prior to the release. For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $47.64, remaining stable over the past 30 days. This reflects a gain of 25.3% from $38.02 in the year-ago quarter. Revenues are expected to be $1.78 billion, up 9% year over year.

NVR, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise


NVR, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | NVR, Inc. Quote

Let’s delve deeper to find out how the company’s top and bottom lines will shape up this earnings season.

Factors at Play

The company has been consistently reporting solid top-line numbers across the segments. The trend is expected to continue in the third quarter as well, owing to robust demand for homes, favorable job market and impressive economic conditions.

In the first six months of 2018, total revenues grew 18% from the prior-year figure on account of higher housing revenues. Specifically, Homebuilding revenues (comprising 97.7% of total revenues) increased 17% on 19% year-over-year increase in the number of settled units. Also, new orders increased 11%, backed by continued favorable market conditions that led to higher community absorption rates.

Notably, the company’s solid backlog gives an indication that robust performance will continue in the soon-to-be reported quarter as well. Its backlog came in at 10,162 units as of Jun 30, 2018 compared with 8,813 units on Jun 30, 2017, representing a 15% increase. The upside was primarily attributable to higher new orders along with lower backlog turnover rate on a year-over-year basis.

However, rising land and labor costs are threatening margins, as these limit homebuilders’ pricing power. Labor shortages are leading to higher wages while land prices are inflating due to limited availability. In the first six months of 2018, SG&A expenses increased 7% primarily due to an increase in personnel costs and equity-based compensation.

Here is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts:

NVR does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: NVR has an Earnings ESP of -5.28%.

Zacks Rank: NVR currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Strong Sell) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is witnessing negative estimate revisions. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their respective quarters to be reported.

PulteGroup, Inc. PHM has an Earnings ESP of +6.88% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report quarterly results on Oct 23.

KBR, Inc. KBR has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to report quarterly results on Oct 30.

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. JEC has an Earnings ESP of +5.25% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to report quarterly numbers on Nov 20.

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