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How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Consumer Staples Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Estee Lauder?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Estee Lauder (EL) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.44 a share, just 27 days from its upcoming earnings release on November 1, 2022.

EL has an Earnings ESP figure of +8.05%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.44 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.33. Estee Lauder is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

EL is just one of a large group of Consumer Staples stocks with a positive ESP figure. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Archer Daniels Midland, which is readying to report earnings on October 25, 2022, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.42 a share, and ADM is 20 days out from its next earnings report.

Archer Daniels Midland's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +2.6% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.38.

EL and ADM's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


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The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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