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Kemper Unlikely to Recover Estimated Q1 Catastrophe Loss

Kemper Corporation KMPR estimates catastrophe loss between $35 and $45 million to weigh on first-quarter 2016 earnings. The insurer is not hopeful of recovering any of these losses from its catastrophe reinsurance program.

Though the pre-tax losses stemmed from various storms, the hail storm in north Texas on Mar 23 in particular was largely responsible for the consolidated loss. The hail storm had severely affected the company’s policyholders in that area.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at 37 cents, translating into a year-over-year decline of 11%. We expect the estimate to move down as analysts incorporate the projected catastrophe loss in their estimates.

In the last quarter too, Kemper had to digest a loss of $9.2 million, which dragged down the bottom line of the company and resulted in a 930 basis-point year-over-year deterioration in combined ratio. The company posted operating earnings of 9 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 85% and declining 93% year over year.

Kemper is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results on May 5. Our proven model does not conclusively show that the company will beat on earnings. Though Kemper has an Earnings ESP of 2.7%, its Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) lowers the predictive power of an earnings beat, hence making our prediction difficult.

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked multi-insurers are AXA Group AXAHY, eHealth, Inc. SCOR SE SCRYY and Swiss Re Ltd. SSREY. Each of these stocks sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

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AXA SA -SP ADR (AXAHY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
KEMPER CORP (KMPR): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
SCOR ADR (SCRYY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
SWISS RE LTD (SSREY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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