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How Investors Can Grab Better Returns for Finance Using the Zacks ESP Screener

Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Toronto-Dominion Bank?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.70 a share, just 21 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 25, 2022.

By taking the percentage difference between the $1.70 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.59 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Toronto-Dominion Bank has an Earnings ESP of +6.92%. Investors should also know that TD is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

TD is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Capital One (COF) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Capital One is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 25, 2022. COF's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $5.16 a share 82 days from its next earnings release.

For Capital One, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.12 is +0.75%.

TD and COF's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


5 Stocks Set to Double

Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%.

Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.

Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
Toronto Dominion Bank The (TD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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