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Jazz (JAZZ) Up 11.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ). Shares have added about 11.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Jazz due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals Beats on Q2 Earnings & Sales

Jazz Pharmaceuticals delivered adjusted earnings of $3.71 per share for the second quarter of 2020, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.38. However, earnings were down 8.4% from the year-ago figure of $4.05 per share.

Total revenues in the reported quarter rose 5.3% year over year to $562.4 million and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $506.43 million.

Quarter in Detail

Net product sales increased 6.6% from the year-ago quarter to $558.2 million on the back of growth in Xyrem, Sunosi and Erwinaze net sales, partially offset by a decrease in Defitelio and Vyxeos sales.

Royalties and contract revenues declined 60.5% to $4.2 million in the quarter.

Sales of Xyrem, rose 8.1% year over year to $446.8 million. Sales were driven by 5% rise in bottle volume growth. The average number of active Xyrem patients increased 3%. Beginning mid-March, Jazz noticed a decline in new patient enrollments for Xyrem, following the coronavirus outbreak.  However, the trend reversed in the latter half of the second quarter.

Sunosi recorded sales of $8.6 million in the quarter, higher than $1.9 million in the previous quarter. Sales reflected lower gross-to-net deductions and 12% increase in prescriptions compared to the first quarter of 2020.

Erwinaze/Erwinase (for acute lymphoblastic leukemia [“ALL”]) revenues were $32.7 million, up 18.3% year over year. The drug’s availability continues to be impacted by ongoing supply and manufacturing issues.

Defitelio sales declined 7.3% year over year to $42.7 million in the quarter. The sales decline reflects reduction in the number of hematopoietic stem cell transplants performed due to COVID-19.

Vyxeos generated sales of $26.6 million, down 15.3% from the year-ago period. Restrictions due to COVID-19 hurt Vyxeos’ demand in the United States.

Other product sales declined 83.5% to $0.9 million.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose 9.3% to $170.4 million due to higher expenses for business expansion and preparation for multiple product launches.

Adjusted research and development (R&D) expenses increased 26.1% to $71.3 million, primarily due to escalating expenses related to development of the company’s pipeline.

2020 Guidance

The company raised its financial guidance for 2020 based on strong performance of its drugs during the second quarter,

The company expects 2020 earnings in the range of $11.90-$13.00 compared with the prior expectation of $11.25-$12.50. Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $2.23-$2.33 billion versus $2.12-$2.26 billion expected previously.

Total product sales are anticipated in the range of $2.21-$2.31 billion versus $2.11-$2.24 billion expected previously. Instead of providing guidance for individual products, Jazz provided revenue guidance for its two therapeutic areas — Neuroscience and Oncology. While Neuroscience franchise comprises Xyrem, Sunosi and Xywav, Oncology franchise includes Erwinaze, Defitelio, Vyxeos and Zepzelca.

Neuroscience sales are expected in the range of $1.73 billion to $1.8 billion versus the previous range of $1.65 billion to $1.74 billion. The Oncology franchise is expected to record sales of $445 million to $525 million compared with the previous range of $420 million to $510 million.

While adjusted SG&A expenses are anticipated in the range of $700 million to $750 million (same as previous), adjusted R&D expenses are expected to be in the band of $275 million to $305 million (previously $250 million to $280 million).

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 7.83% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Jazz has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Jazz has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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