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Factors Setting the Tone for Chipotle (CMG) Q3 Earnings

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 21. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 15.5%.

Q3 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is pegged at $6.19, indicating growth of 64.6% from $3.76 reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for revenues stands at nearly $1,938 million, suggesting an improvement of 21% from the prior-year quarter.

Factors to Note

Chipotle's third-quarter performance is likely to have benefitted from robust digitalization, comps sales, opening of Chipotlane and other sales building efforts. The company has been advancing with its plans to enhance the delivery system. Its rewards program has also been contributing to its performance. Chipotle has more than 21 million enrolled members.

In order to boost convenience in the digital ordering platform, the company has been initiating features such as unlimited customization, contactless delivery and group ordering. During first-quarter 2021, the company initiated investment in Nuro for the expansion of its delivery services in Europe. The idea of using robotics-based autonomous vehicles for delivery purposes is likely to enhance customer experience in the days ahead. Digital sales surged 10.5% year over year to $916.5 million during second-quarter 2021. Digital sales accounted for 48.5% of sales in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, Chipotle's third-quarter top line is likely to reflect improvement in comps backed by consistent strength in digital sales, solid recovery of in-restaurant sales and positive customer reception to new menu items. For third-quarter 2021, the company anticipates comps growth in the range of low to mid-double digits.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of +2.30%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Other Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates

Here are some other stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale space as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season:

AutoNation, Inc. AN has an Earnings ESP of +8.85% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Papa John's International, Inc. PZZA has an Earnings ESP of +5.07% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Carvana Co. CVNA has an Earnings ESP of +96.59% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Free Stock Analysis Report
AutoNation, Inc. (AN): Free Stock Analysis Report
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA): Free Stock Analysis Report
Carvana Co. (CVNA): Free Stock Analysis Report
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