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Will Thor's (THO) Q4 Earnings Snap Its Surprise Streak?

Thor Industries THO is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Sep 28, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share and revenues is pegged at $4.13 and $3.77 billion, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Thor’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share has been revised upward by a cent in the past seven days. The bottom-line projection implies a year-over-year uptick of 0.24%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a year-over-year rise of 4.8%.

This Indiana-based largest manufacturer of recreational vehicles (RVs) in the world posted better-than-expected earnings in the last reported quarter on higher-than-anticipated revenues across North American Towable and Motorized RVs segments.

The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average being 37.4%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Thor Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Thor Industries, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Thor Industries, Inc. Quote

Factors to Shape Q4 Results

The RV market is highly consumer cyclic and dependent on business cycles and economic conditions. Recession fears triggered by sky-high inflation and rising interest rates have now started to weigh on industry participants like Thor. The number of RV units sold by Thor in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2022 is likely to have declined from the year-ago period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Thor’s total RV shipments during the quarter to be reported is pegged at 79,635 units, implying a decline from 82,581 units sold during the fiscal fourth quarter of 2021.

In addition to the declining unit sales, inflationary concerns and severe supply chain disruptions are increasing the cost of manufacturing RVs. What’s partially offsetting these headwinds is the smart pricing actions undertaken by the company to pass the rising costs of raw materials and other components to customers.

Let’s delve into the key fiscal fourth-quarter 2022 projections for the company’s segments.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 revenues from the North American Motorized RVs segment is pegged at $1,005 million, indicating a rise from $823 million recorded in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for units sold in this segment is 8,004, calling for an uptick from 7,092 units in the corresponding quarter of fiscal 2021. The estimate for gross profits is pegged at $129 million, suggesting an increase from the year-ago level of $106 million.

The consensus mark for revenues from the North American Towable RVs unit is $1,806 million, implying a year-over-year increase of 4.3%. The consensus mark for units sold in this segment is 52,247, suggesting a decline from 55,709 units in the corresponding quarter of fiscal 2021. The estimate for gross profit is pegged at $300 million, suggesting a contraction from the year-ago level of $309 million.

The consensus mark for revenues from the European RV segment is $835 million, indicating a decrease from $970 million registered in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for units sold in this segment is 19,384, suggesting a decline from 19,780 units in the corresponding quarter of fiscal 2021. Also, the consensus mark for gross profit of the segment is pegged at $129 million, suggesting a decline from $154 million recorded in the year-ago quarter. Supply constraints and shortage of various RV components are more conspicuous in Thor’s European segment.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Thor for the to-be-reported quarter, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Thor has an Earnings ESP of -4.30%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 18 cents lower the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Thor carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) currently.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Peer Releases

Skyline Champion SKY: Skyline announced its first-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Aug 2. The company came out with adjusted earnings of $2.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.58 per share. This compares to earnings of 75 cents per share a year ago.Revenues of $725.88 million for the quarter ended June 2022 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.41% and compared favorably with the year-ago quarter revenues of $510.2 million.

As of Jul 2, 2022, Skyline had $463.8 million of cash and cash equivalents. SKY surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with the average being 44.1%. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has a VGM Score of A.

REV Group REVG: REV Group released fiscal third-quarter 2022 results on Sep 7. It came out with adjusted earnings of 24 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 21 cents per share. This compares with earnings of 37 cents per share a year ago. Revenues of $594.8 million for the quarter ended July 2022 were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. In the corresponding quarter of fiscal 2021, revenues totaled $593.3 million. 

As of Jul 31, REVG had $14.8 million of cash and cash equivalents. REV Group surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters for as many misses, with the negative average being 5.3%. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 and has a VGM Score of A.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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