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What's in the Cards for BioNTech (BNTX) This Earnings Season?

We expect BioNTech SE BNTX to surpass expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results.

The company’s surprise record has been dismal so far as its bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and lagged the same on the other three occasions, the average miss being 52.01%. In the last-reported quarter, BioNTech delivered a negative earnings surprise of 123.91%.

Shares of BioNTech have rallied 40.6% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 9.5%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

BioNTech and partner Pfizer’s PFE COVID-19 vaccine, BNT162b2, is now approved for emergency/temporary use in several countries. Vaccine rollouts were in full swing in the second half of the fourth quarter as millions of doses have already been supplied to various countries across the globe. Sales of BNT162b2 are likely to have added to revenues in the fourth quarter.

Pfizer, in its fourth-quarter earnings release, announced BNT162b2 sales of $154 million.

Also, BioNTech has a collaboration with Fosun Pharma for BNT162b2 in China. Collaboration revenues are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter from the prior-year period’s reported number following the above-mentioned partnerships.

Meanwhile, earlier this month, BioNTech/Pfizer dosed the first participants in a mid-to-late-stage study which is evaluating the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of BNT162b2 in healthy pregnant women of 18 years of age and older.

Pfizer and BioNTech plan to initiate further studies evaluating BNT162b2 in children between 5 years and 11 years over the next couple of months and in those younger than 5 years, later in 2021. Investors will be keen to get more updates on the latest developments as expansion in additional population groups will further increase the growth potential.

This apart, BioNTech’s pipeline boasts of several candidates such as BNT111, the company’s mRNA-based FixVac cancer vaccine program and BNT113, BNT114, BNT122, BNT131, BNT311 to name a few, which are in early- to mid-stage studies for addressing various oncological indications. An update on the above-mentioned programs is expected during the upcoming earnings call.

The study and developmental activities related to the company’s pipeline candidates are likely to have escalated its operating expense in the to-be-reported quarter.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for BioNTech this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: BioNTech has an Earnings ESP of +35.68% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 57 cents per share while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of 37 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: BioNTech has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of an earnings beat.

Acceleron Pharma, Inc. XLRN has an Earnings ESP of +4.69% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report earnings on Feb 25.

Travere Therapeutics, Inc. TVTX has an Earnings ESP of +18.61% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to report earnings on Mar 1.

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