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Bear of the Day: Tri Pointe Homes (TPH)

Tri Pointe Homes TPH is a higher-end homebuilder that operates in key growth markets in different areas of the U.S. TRI Pointe Homes posted a rather solid run of sales and earnings expansion and it befitted from the covid housing boom.

TRI Pointe Homes now faces tough to compete against periods and a rapidly cooling housing market.

TRI Pointe’s Story

TPH builds premium homes and communities across 10 states and Washington D.C. TRI Pointe’s portfolio includes key growth markets within California, Texas, Colorado, Arizona, and beyond. TRI Pointe’s revenue climbed by over 16% in both FY17 and FY18, before it slipped by 5% in 2019. It then jumped 6% in 2020 and 22% last year.

TRI Pointe, like all of the other homebuilders, benefitted from historically low mortgage rates, pandemic-driven moving, and remote work. On top of that, TPH and the entire housing market got a big boost from millennials, who are finally driving the market.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The demographic demand is still there as millennials start to form families. However, two years of an ultra-hot housing market has priced more people out at the moment.

Mortgage rates have also skyrocketed from close to historic lows all the way up to decade long highs in a flash. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 2.65% in January 2021 and around 3.35% in early 2022. It has since skyrocketed to 5.54%.

On the TRI Pointe front, it did manage to top our Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on July 21. But a “combination of higher mortgage interest rates and lower consumer confidence began to impact demand.”

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bottom Line

TRI Pointe’s overall outlook remains solid, with net new home orders last quarter relatively consistent with its pre-pandemic levels. But slowing demand and changing market conditions have recalibrated its revenue and earnings outlook.

Zacks estimates call for its revenue to dip over 3% in both 2022 and 2023. Its adjusted earnings are still expected to pop 12.9% this year, but slip 8.5% in 2023. Plus, its consensus EPS estimate for 2022 is down 13% in the last 60 days, with FY23 down from $6.28 per share directly prior to TRI Pointe’s Q2 release to $4.26 a share at the moment.   

TRI Pointe’s downward earnings momentum helps it land a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). TPH is also part of the Zacks Building Products-Home Builders industry that sits in the bottom 1% of more than 250 unique areas.

TPH shares have lagged the market in the last five years and in 2022, with it down 34% vs. the benchmark’s 18% drop. And the firm doesn’t pay a dividend to help counteract some of the slide. Therefore, it might be best to stay away from TRI Pointe for now.

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Tri Pointe Homes Inc. (TPH): Free Stock Analysis Report
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